Can Architects predict the future?
Abu Dhabi has recently announced plans to turn itself into a sort of Arabian Left Bank, with cultural venues designed by Zaha Hadid, Frank Gehry, and Jean Nouvel. Beijing, meanwhile, has completed the giant steel bird’s nest, the titanium-egg National Theater, and the unusual state television headquarters, which locals have dubbed “the twisted donut.” A tiny sheikhdom on the Gulf and the world’s largest Communist state have unexpectedly become the latest hotbeds of avant-garde architecture.
Avant-garde is a French term that in the late 1800s came to refer to pioneering painters, particularly the Impressionists, who considered themselves to be at the forefront of art. Since that time, the concept of an avant-garde has become popular in architecture, but are steel bird’s nests and twisted helixes really a portent of the future?
In some ways, the term architectural avant-garde is an oxymoron, since an architect, unlike a painter, is able to experiment only within relatively narrow bounds. Buildings are expensive, and they are intended to last a long time, so the people who build them tend to be risk-averse. Even an architect who finds a patron like the crown prince of Abu Dhabi or the Chinese government willing to take chances, still faces the limitations of building regulations and existing construction materials and techniques.
The truth is that buildings belong firmly to their own time. This is especially true of architecture that attempts to predict the future. That’s why the settings of old sci-fi movies are often so funny; the future never turns out the way people imagine. Most buildings have a shelf life of 20 to 30 years; that is, it takes 20 to 30 years before they are perceived as “old-fashioned.” That is not necessarily a bad thing—it would be disorienting to live in an environment that never aged (actually, it would be like living in Las Vegas).
One day, say in 2050, people will look at the bird’s nest, and the twisted donut, and think, “Pretty good for its time,” or, “What was all the fuss about?” For whatever the architecture of the day, it almost certainly will not include bird’s nests or twisted donuts. The real question about new buildings should never be “Are they cutting edge?” but “Are they good?”
